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Feb 06 2006
Hybrid Car Forecast for Early 2006 Print E-mail
Written by Kacey Green   
Tuesday, 07 February 2006
Front Angle of 2007 Camry with Hybrid Synergy DriveRenewable Energy Access Reports : 2/6

This should be a fascinating year for hybrids in the compact and midsize car segments, and a great year for consumer choice. The new American-built 2007 Toyota Camry Hybrid is the first midsize hybrid sedan to be built in the U.S., while the revamped and substantially improved 2006 Honda Civic Hybrid has already been well received since its unveiling this past fall.

 Both of these vehicles are delivering what hybrid consumers are asking for -- solid performance along with better gas mileage, lower smog-forming and fewer global warming emissions. The Nissan Altima Hybrid is another excellent vehicle, but will only be sold in California. The Hyundai Accent Hybrid, having debuted last year at the Guangzhou, China, auto show, is due in the U.S. by year's end, and it looks like it may give consumers a 44 percent boost in fuel economy for significantly less than $20,000 -- and that's before the federal tax credit.

Midsize Hybrids Should Follow the Leader

The second-generation Prius [the third, the first was in Japan in 1997] , which debuted in 2004, showed that you can have it all -- more room, low emissions, and great gas mileage. The natural follow-up would have been to build on what makes the Prius so successful while providing luxury features for their upscale buyers. Unfortunately, Honda and Toyota seem to have fallen back on the outdated axiom that a luxury vehicle needs to double as a muscle car. Honda's four-cylinder Accord is more popular than its V6 version, yet the company decided to use the more inefficient six-cylinder engine as the foundation for the Accord Hybrid […] Likewise, the Lexus GS luxury sedan is expected to offer only about 27-28 mpg. Using the best hybrid technology primarily to boost power is not what consumers expect out of hybrids.


Hybrid SUVs Part Inspiration, Part Marketing Gimmick

Impact of New Fuel Economy Labels is Uncertain

The EPA recently proposed a series of changes to make fuel economy ratings more accurate. [...] After 2011, automakers will be required to measure fuel economy results from three additional test cycles: cycles that include high-speed and aggressive driving, the use of air conditioning at high temperatures, and cold-weather operation. Once these additional tests are in use it is expected that certain hybrid vehicles will fare better than others, and consumers will be able to make better decisions about choosing a vehicle.

2006 looks like it will be a great year for hybrid cars.  I’m glad to see that the new Camry with Hybrid Synergy Drive (HSD) is right around the corner.  The Camry hybrid is one of Toyota’s first major steps in bringing hybrids to the mainstream.  This is so important because the market has been saying that the hybrids released until now were either too expensive or too radical looking to be considered.  The Camry is the number one selling car in America, people already like the way it looks. All Toyota has to do is give it sufficient supply and an acceptable price point and it will sell like the Prius did in Model Year (MY) 2004 through MY 2006.  Plus this year there will be a decent tax credit versus last year’s small deduction.

Nissan is finally bringing out the Altima with Toyota’s HSD after all these years of teasing.  There is one problem, they are still teasing us.  The Altima hybrid will only be available in California.  Nissan is greenwashing; they are going to say “Ooh!  Look at us, look how we help the environment.”  The damned thing will only be available in one state.  Greenwashing is a distraction; while the target of the greenwashing is distracted they do something the target doesn’t like. (e.g. “Hey! Look over there an unguarded pile of money!”) While we all ogle over the new car they’ll introduce some F350 sized truck.  Greenwashing is bad for the party that does it in the long run, the interest in the distraction will wane and greenwashing targets will realize they were duped and may boycott.

Other hybrids should have emulated Toyota’s success with the Prius, however even Toyota didn’t there’s a reason for this, its called supply and demand.  The pioneer hybrid owners are a different market than the mainstream, the mainstream wants more power, more speed etc.  The mainstream wouldn’t mind saving on gas, they would feel good if they could help the environment, but helping the environment is one of the last things they look for.  Helping the environment comes after they’ve chosen the car they want it’s used as a minor justification for the purchase rather than being one of the major reasons for choosing a vehicle.  Hybrid Sports Utility Vehicles are a part of this phenomenon.  We can’t forget there are actually people who need (not want) to drive an SUV, why not give them a more eco-friendly option?  The higher profit margin on these more popular hybrids can be used to make the whole fleet more fuel efficient and less polluting.  The RX 400h starts at $45,335, the profits can make the Corolla with HSD come years before possible without such margins.  The Honda Accord Hybrid (HAH) starts at $30,990 and Honda is seriously considering making all Civics hybrids, but this will only be possible with the extra profits available from vehicles like HAH and Ridgeline.

The new EPA tests will help everyone make more informed decisions about buying any vehicle, but just like today’s tests Your Mileage May Vary (YMMV) I regularly beat the EPA estimate for my vehicle but there are some fill-ups where I don’t even come close to it.

2006 is looking like its going to be one truly interesting and highly unpredictable year for the Gas-Electric Hybrid.

Kacey Green
GRLT.com
"Tech with a twist of lime!"



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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 08 March 2006 )
 
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